(notes: Most of this was written before 'Evil Will goes on a Rampage' aired. It's also rather randomly put together, but I've too much of a backlog to go editing and rewriting this into a term paper. :-)

I love Buffy. Along with The West Wing, it's my favorite show on TV.

But lately Buffy's been pissing me off.

Sure, there have been compelling storylines, and as far as the master-arc goes, I couldn't be more impressed with all the changes. Nevertheless, I don't feel like I'm watching anymore, but instead being manipulated.

The Buffy writers know the success they have on their hands. They know their rapt audience, lusting for their weekly fix, pushing the story along. They know that there are basically only two ways to lose this momentum.

The first way is to pull a Moonlighting or X-Files. For one reason or another the master-arc progressions stalls completely. You don't have to lose a main character to stop the arc-train. Sometimes it happens because the producers give too many opportunities to too many writers, making it nearly impossible to maintain a cohesive arc, resulting in a string of interchangeable capsulated episodes (again, X-Files pre-Duchovny's departure is a good example).

A lot of producers fear significant cast and focus changes. Some of that fear is nested with the worry about becoming a soap opera, where implausibility rules, and storyline shock is used for shock's sake. This kind of turn is rapidly followed by a 'who cares'-manship of the audience. When anything can happen at any time, what does it matter what the characters do? This is the second way to lose the golden eye of the viewer.

Granted, some shows thrive by exploiting both of these: Creating a world where outlandish things happen all the time, yet nothing ever sticks. This is usually the domain of animated shows. The Simpsons, Futurama, and South Park live and thrive in this world. This is not a suggested area for live-action shows, unless you're The Tick.

But back my Buffy Beef...

Buffy neatly avoids both these problems, but at the risk of finding a third problem. While the first few seasons had season or half-season arcs (The Master, Good Angel, Bad Angel, Dead Angel, Good Angel, etc.) for the most part the Scooby Gang remained constant, not rocking the boat until Joss proved to the network and the sponsors that she was seaworthy.

Soon characters were being added, relationships formed, were broken, twisted. Dawn was added, forever imprinted on the Summers household like a big 'CHA' half-etched on the surface of the moon. Plotline floatsam.

The true strokes of genius on the show is when the unexpected but believable happens. In 'The Body' where Buffy's mom is dead (not 'dies' but is just found dead, in the most honest post-mortem portrayal I'd ever care to see) we felt for the characters. It's not like she was murdered by her own lovechild who was kidnapped as a baby and returns from an evil dimension to hunt her down for her wrongs (ahem). No, it was a good example of life. Nobody expects an aneurism, and Joss didn't try to prepare us for one.

Granted, too much of that sort of thing and it becomes unbelievable, but in the right dose, it's honest life. When was the last time someone got in a car accident in a show, right in the middle of a totally unrelated storyline, and the accident becomes the new line? It happens all the time in real life, but on TV? Only on the soaps. Or ER, which is a perfect example of life-events pushing a storyline.

So I've written over 600 words. What am I getting at?

Buffy's in danger of turning to crap.

There are legitimate ways to foreshadow: Buffy the Musical was great because it revealed people's secrets. It didn't spell out what was going to happen, because often times actual events are the result of more than just innermost character desires. Contrived? Perhaps. But it was honest. It didn't declare what would happen, it was just a domesday book of where everyone was at at the given time.

Now, though, in recent episodes, the foreshadowing isn't at the character level, but at the omniscient level. When Willow and Tara get back together so fast and so passionately, Joss is tying on little heartstrings to pull a week later, when he kills her with a random bullet through the heart. When Spike has to leave for the sake of the story, we have to feel good about it, so he has to try to rape Buffy so he's the bad guy again.

Back to 'The Body', It was powerful because it was plausible, indefensible, and random. Shooting Tara through the heart just after her reconciliation is soap-operatic at best, predictable at worst.

Joss is telling me how to feel, so he can pull me like a puppet. "See? Spike is good deep down. Trust us; he doesn't have a soul, but you want to like him like he has one anyhow. Okay, do you feel for him yet? No? Then let's make him a little more sincere and a little more abused. Yet? Okay. Now let's show you how you were wrong when he slams Buffy's head to the porcelain.

"Remember how strongly people felt when Glory scrambled Tara's mind? Let's do that again! Oh, but we have to get Tara and Willow back together. The happier they are, the better it'll be. It'll be like Romeo and Juliet with kittens!"

Bah. My problem with all this is that Buffy's producers and writers decide where they want the series to go, then they figure out how to get it there. After a large, cycling ensemble cast (Buffy, Giles, Willow, Xander, Angel, Spike, (buffy's mom), Cordelia, Oz, Faith, Wesley, Anya, Riley, Dawn and Tara) (not counting the transient arc(h)-foes: Glory, Ben, the Master, the evil-supervillian-troika, Spike (err, again), Drusilla, Anya (heh), The Mayor, Principal Snyder, the Initiative and Professor Walsh, the Watcher's Council, etc.) they've decided to bring it back to the original foursome, the core Scoobies. Only in Giles's place we get Dawn, the master replaced by the apprentice (and if you think Dawn's not going to be 'let in' and will continue to warm the little-sister bench, then that's exactly what Joss wants you to think. Dawn has a trick up her sleeve that nobody knows yet.

Right, so: Foursome. Gotta get rid of Anya, while not making the viewers hate Xander for it. Have her sleep with Spike and get her vengeance back on. Gotta get rid of Tara without people hating Willow. Kill her off randomly in front of Willow. This also neatly solves the problem of Willow's ride on the wicca wagon, because a wegan Willow is as useful to the scoobies as a stupid Selma. (speaking of which, is it any coincidence that Buffy is reverting to core scoobies at the same time as Sarah Michelle Geller is staring in the Scooby movie?)

We got rid of Spike (but don't worry, "I'll be back, Slayer, and when I do..."), Giles is in England with a new show life, Mom's dead, Riley's married, Angel's on another network, and Oz is still on his wolfsome walkabout. Actually, there are some serious possibilities in the land of Oz. I watched Oz's last visit to Sunnydale last night, and his and Willow's 'wrong time, wrong place, but someday' speech sets the stage for an Oz housekeeping, if Joss can handle it tactfully enough to not raise the potential 'boy saving Willow from her lesbian self' ire.

Funny how there's an order to the randomness. In the words of the Fear Demon, "They're all going to abandon you, you know."

And of course, tonight we'll get to find out "what it really means to be a Slayer." Finally, again.