Here's my semi-annual prediction list for Macworld Expo. Have at you!
Two-button mouse - Apple designed two-button optical mouse standard on new macs. Possibly a new design that makes the left button larger than the right, so that 'center clickers' still get their expected behavior.
why? Apple itself has been pushing contextual menus for several years. Now most applications for Mac OS X support control-click functionality and most users use it every day. Since most Mac users use Windows or Unix computers at least occasionally, they are familiar with two-button mice. As stubborn as Apple has been on this issue, there is less and less reason to shun a two-button mouse simply because it came from the Wintel side. Probability: could be
Bluetooth Mouse and Keyboard - Using the recently developed and tested Bluetooth drivers for OS X, and a possible motherboard-level bluetooth chip and antenna, bluetooth keyboard and mouse could be a new standard to go along with Apple's move towards incremental mobility enhancements like the current space-efficient keyboard and LCD displays.
why? Apple has taken steps on their site to position Bluetooth as an embraced technology. While unsuitable for high-speed applications like iPods, video editing, or displays, bluetooth would help apple's mission of the wireless computer. With an LCD monitor. the only cable might now be the thick AVI cable from the G4 tower to the display. Batteries could be an issue, and a small powered docking tray for mouse and keyboard might be a solution. Probability: Someone? Yes. Apple? Maybe... Bluetooth solutions at Expo are virtually certain. With Apple's pushing of the thumb-sized USB Bluetooth Nubbin, other vendors are likely to reveal solutions even if Apple isn't ready to yet. Think Wacom...
20 gig iPod - iPods will now come in three sizes: 5, 10, and 20 gig. Prices for the 5 and 10 gig iPods will drop by $50 to $349 and $449 respectively, while the 20 gig will sell for $549.
why? Toshiba, the only supplier of the 1.8" hard drives Apple uses for the iPods, came out with a 20 gig drive last January. While it has identical power consumption as the 10 gig, it has an extra platter, making it 8mm high instead of the 5 and 10 gig's 5mm. Along with price point marketing issues, this is why the 20 gig didn't come out earlier. The 10 gig was basically a part replacement, with some possible software mods. The technical requirements for the 10 gig are virtually the same as the 5 gig. The 20 gig will either need a case that is 1-3mm thicker, or Apple will need to rearrange the iPod's interior. Initially, the iPod was created with stock parts from several vendors, with no custom ASICs, lowering startup costs and time to market. Now that the iPod is established, the engineering and testing effort for an ASIC may be justified, and such a chip would clear us space inside the iPod; more than enough for the 20 gig drive. Probability: It will happen at some point. call it 50/50 for an announcement or release next week.
iPod for Windows - At one point envisioned as a separate hardware product, an iPod for the Windows market would now have identical hardware as a Mac iPod, and would probably be sold in the same box, with a multi-platform install CD and manual. No iTunes for Windows, but a slick utility solely to create playlists and import music onto the iPod, without any playing ability on the Windows side.
why? As often as Apple has failed in the consumer electronics arena (AppleCD, Newton, Pippin, QuickTake, etc.), they have a huge hit with the iPod, despite the product's mac-only limitation. Without this limitation, the iPod is the best of breed for the portable MP3 market. Balanced between having a product which has brought more people to the Mac platform, and one with a respectable market penetration and profit center of its own, the logical compromise is to provide enough Windows functionality to open up the potential iPod audience to those with any computer, while still providing a premium experience to those with Macs. If done correctly, Apple could create a Windows experience which would inform them of the added capability available to Mac users, helping with Apple's current job 1: Switch. Probability: Virtually certain.
17" LCD iMac - In addition to the successful 15" iMac, a 17" 1280x1024 screen would bring in a lot of people currently being driven to large, noisy G4 towers with empty slots, just to get a decent-sized screen.
why? Good question. Though the iMac enclosure is smaller and less expensive than the G4 tower, such a machine could easily cannibalize the G4 tower market. Prices for the 17" iMac would have to be high enough to retain the profit margin of the G4. Personally, such a machine would be my ideal, as it would be for a lot of people. I'd love to see this happen, but I'd worry about it sharing the same fate as the G4 Cube: A very appealing machine, but with a cannibalization tariff so high as to make a machine perceived as overpriced, however cool it may be. Probability: 60%. I'd have said 40%, if not for all the buzzing over at apple, yanking press credentials of the rumor sites.
OS X 10.2 (Jaguar) - not a release, but a full walkthrough and a release date around August 10th.
why? Beta testing went really well, and Apple would love to get some all-important Operating System buzz in the media in time to have an impact on the educational buying season, Apple's second largest after the holiday season. Probability: Certain.
Switch Hoopla - Look for at least one, and possibly all, of the stars of the Switch commercials to be presented on stage, along with a couple new ones.
why? Jobs loves to show off his media campaigns, and he hasn't had a chance to talk about this one in front of a big audience. It's a gimmie. Probability: 80%.
Superdrives Everywhere - Look for Superdrives to be standard on all G4 tower machines and G4 Powerbooks. Also expect Superdrives on all but the entry-level LCD iMac and iBook, which will keep their CD-RW and CD-ROM respectively. The eMac and CRT iMac will remain the same.
why? Superdrives are coming down in price, and it's a point of difference between Apple and the Windows world. It positions Apple to take better advantage of the shift from VCRs to DVD and, considering Apple's refusal to let users upgrade just their optical drive to an iDVD-compatible superdrive, it's a carefully planned solution to promote people to buy new machines, while handing their old machines down to people aching for iPods, etc. ;-) This idea is further supported by Sony's recent release of a DVD-RAM/CD-RW equipped notebook computer (Sony is Apple's primary optical drive supplier), and the fact that last week's Apple Employee Promo featured eight current Mac models, only one of which contained a Superdrive. It looks like they're clearing inventory. Probability: 70%
Price drop on 22" and 23" Cinema Displays - Look for the 22" to drop to $1799 and the 23" to $2599.
why? If a 17" iMac is released, the step up to the G4 tower can't be as steep. Customers looking for more than an iMac will feel that they need a bigger screen, and $2500 for a display is a huge obstacle. At $1799, it starts becoming a realistic, though extravagant, option. Current promos give a $500 rebate when you buy a G4 tower and a 22" display, so a price drop from a current $1999 to a perpetual $1799 isn't unrealistic. Of course the 23" would have to come down too, though the $2599 figure is a little more arbitrary, and would fluctuate based on Apple market research that I don't have access to. Probability: 80%.
iPad - the super-cool pen and tablet-based Mac.
why? Inkwell, along with the fact that several other hardware and OS manufacturers are heading down this path, makes this a clear stop on the Apple path. Probability: Zero at this Expo. January's another story though...
Well there you go! That's my story and I'm sticking to it. We'll see what happens on Wednesday the 17th!