For those who really want that 7-hour advance notice, here's what's going down tomorrow:

• iPod for Windows: Certain
• OS X 10.2: Certain release date, probably early August. $19.95 upgrade price.
• 17" LCD iMac: Most likely an announcement and a late Aug/Early Sept. release
• 20gig iPod: Same release date as the 17" iMac, but possibly not announced at MWNY.
• iPad: Patience... Wait for MWSF.
• Also... 'Switch' kudos, 3rd-party kudos (Halo?), QT 6 overview, small tweaks, LCD price drops...

Here's hoping for surprises!

So on a relative spur of the moment, I'm in Los Angeles right now, shortly after midnight on Monday morning, sitting in my mom's kitchen, hooked to her DSL listening softly to the City of Angels soundtrack as the house sleeps.

I'd planned on visiting family down here next week, from Tuesday through Thursday, but as August 3rd grows closer and closer, I knew that I'd just be anxious about stagnating, unable to do the cleaning, sorting, packing and moving that will comprise the majority of the three weeks that remain in my affair with Berkeley.

Yesterday I gave notice on my apartment. I didn't want to. I didn't want to so badly that I cost myself $25 a day for over a week postponing the inevitable. Now I've given 30 days notice on an apartment I'll be leaving in 20 days. My last hope was talking to Jim the Manager, reminding him that I've lived here for seven years, and checking if it would be okay if I had Pamila housesit for me for the year I'll be gone. It's a grey area in my rental agreement, somewhere between subletting and homewatching. As I'd expected though, Jim's under enormous pressure to have tenant turnover, since after I leave my grandfathered rent control the rent on my apartment will jump from the current $750/mo to around $1500-1600. I don't even know for certain that I would move back in at the end of the year, but it would be a great place to stay while saving for a house downpayment, if my next job were in the East Bay or downtown SF.

It would also mean I wouldn't have to move all my furniture, only that furniture promised to friends for the next year.

I told Jim I would have to move out then, and he suggested that I wait a few days and reconsider whether I really had to go away for a year, as he'd really like to see me stay. I said no, I really do have to go, and he told me again to think on it for a few days.

Of course I'd been thinking about it for the last two years, and everything had been weighed. This was just notification, not negotiation. Upstairs I had a Pittsburgh lease agreement sitting on the coffee table, on top of my more tattered Berkeley rental agreement, as if quitting my job and enrolling in grad school weren't already points of no return.

Walking out of his office at around 9pm, I started wantering the Berkeley campus. After 11 years of having the campus as my backyard, it feels as much a home to me as anyplace ever has. I felt that I could close my eyes and still find my way from anywhere on campus or Southside to anywhere else.

I started thinking about how indoor cats must feel, where their limited environment becomes their universe. They know it so well that it exists as concretely in their sense memory as in their visual and tactile perceptions. I realized that Berkeley is my environment, mirrored in exquisite fidelity in my brain, much as the five shapes of Tetris are etched into the avid player.

Leaving, I'll have a need to create a new map, and quickly, lest I feel unstuck. Driving with Chad through an intricate knotwork of a journey through the neighborhoods surrounding CMU I already have the foundation for my next framework, but I couldn't help but wonder how this glove that is Berkeley, that I've worn for years and broken in to better fit my hand, would feel when it's only a hollow glove of memory.

And so it was ua bit of a welcome shock of perception when I, on Friday, decided to bump up my LA visit to Sunday through Tuesday. Returning to the only place I ever lived longer than my current home, I got to try on an older glove of sense memory. I was acutely aware of the changes since my last visit home. The new flower garden in the backyard, my mom's new car, the changes to my former bedroom (now an office and, soon, (cliché of clichés) an exercise room). Still, the glove fit, with a finger removed here and replaced there (the destruction and rebirth of the Sherman Oaks Galleria).

In short, as I knew in my mind but wasn't completely faithful in my heart, you can go home again.

The first few visits home after starting college were indeed strange, because Los Angeles didn't just represent a different geography to me, but represented a former life, with different ideals, and different patterns of thinking. Going to LA meant, for at least a few days, becoming my former self. As time went on, each successive visit left me with more of myself, looking at the LA perspective, but not from the LA perspective.

So now when I visit home it's a visiting of an old friend, not a consuming shift.

The thought lingering in my mind is: Is the shift less profound because I've made the LA-SF transition several times, or because I've made any transition several times? Returning from Pittsburgh, will I feel the wash of nostalgia of Berkeley my former home, or from Berkeley-Kevin, my former self?

I guess we'll see...

Anyhow, that wasn't what I was going to write about though. I had a very pleasant day. I woke up early, packed my backpack with clothes, powerbook, iPod, and book. I went downstairs to pick up bagels for the girls and a chai for me, then drove to Karen and Crystals, for a ride to the airport. We had a nice Sunday breakfast before a civilized drive to the Oakland airport, an easy security screening, and right onto a quarter-full 9:30am flight to Burbank, where I was met by my mom. Another breakfast (Elevenses), and home (mom-home) to see Susie and the aforementioned flower garden. It's hot in LA today, up near 100.

Today's my grandfather's birthday (err, the 14th). This was the other reason I bumped my flight up. I rarely come down to LA, and I decided that his party was something definitely worth coming down for. I mistakenly thought he was turning 89 (he's turning 88), which made for a great (albeit mistaken) realization that next year, within the span of 17 days, I would be turning 30, my mom 60, and my grandfather 90. I thought a 30/60/90 birthday party would be a grand affair, but as it turns out it would be a 30/60/89 party, unless Grandpa lies and ups his age a year, or mom and I agree in 2004 to halt our own aging process for one cycle.

I guess I'll just have to sate my amusement with the fact that my birthday falls on Independence Day, Grandpa's on Bastille Day, sister Susie's on Labor Day (this year), and of course my Grandma Kitty's (mom's side) Christmas birthday.

Back to my day... The party at Uncle Alan's was very nice and low key. I got to see Craig who I haven't seen since Christmas. Afterwards mom and I went to the store and Costco (where I couldn't resist but buy Warcrack III), then went to see Lilo and Stitch in the theater. I liked it, though it was a very different direction for Disney. Mom thought it was too violent for what it was supposed to be and I completely get that. It's hard to imagine Disney making a film both more violent than Beauty and the Beast, yet more farcical. After going home we watched Kate & Leopold, for a complete switch, and that was cool too. Very enjoyable, despite the inexorable continuity flaws that afflict every time-travel story I've ever read.

Say, did anyone watch the Robin Williams HBO special tonight? Was it any good? Amazingly, I don't know anyone who gets HBO anymore...

Okay, enough rambling from Kevin. Today was mom's day, and tomorrow is dad's. Now it's time for me to sleep, after knocking back another chapter or two of Return of the King.

I hope your Monday treats you well. Dad and I are going to take another crack at flying model planes, 'cause if at first you don't succeed, eventually it's time to try again.

Announcing the first semi-annual Macoworld Expo Rumor Report Cards!

Okay, here's how it works:

Between now and midnight Tuesday, send me the URLs of the Macworld predictions of your favorite Mac rumor sites. (email is okay, but posting them in this posts' comments is a better way to go).

Then I compile the predictions into a nifty table, grouped by site and their own confidence rating for each prediction. After the keynote speech, I'll go through and grade each prediction list, sifting out the goot from the bad and the downright ugly rumormills. I will, of course, post these report cards on a permanent page for public reference.

Then, the next time the rumor sites roll out their predictions, you can take a look at their track record and see for certain which sites have real inside insights and which are just taking yellow-journalistic potshots.

Lather, rinse, and repeat in January...

So, what rumors are floating out there? Gimmie the URLs baby!

Here's my semi-annual prediction list for Macworld Expo. Have at you!

• Two-button mouse - Apple designed two-button optical mouse standard on new macs. Possibly a new design that makes the left button larger than the right, so that 'center clickers' still get their expected behavior.

  why? Apple itself has been pushing contextual menus for several years. Now most applications for Mac OS X support control-click functionality and most users use it every day. Since most Mac users use Windows or Unix computers at least occasionally, they are familiar with two-button mice. As stubborn as Apple has been on this issue, there is less and less reason to shun a two-button mouse simply because it came from the Wintel side. Probability: could be

• Bluetooth Mouse and Keyboard - Using the recently developed and tested Bluetooth drivers for OS X, and a possible motherboard-level bluetooth chip and antenna, bluetooth keyboard and mouse could be a new standard to go along with Apple's move towards incremental mobility enhancements like the current space-efficient keyboard and LCD displays.

  why? Apple has taken steps on their site to position Bluetooth as an embraced technology. While unsuitable for high-speed applications like iPods, video editing, or displays, bluetooth would help apple's mission of the wireless computer. With an LCD monitor. the only cable might now be the thick AVI cable from the G4 tower to the display. Batteries could be an issue, and a small powered docking tray for mouse and keyboard might be a solution. Probability: Someone? Yes. Apple? Maybe... Bluetooth solutions at Expo are virtually certain. With Apple's pushing of the thumb-sized USB Bluetooth Nubbin, other vendors are likely to reveal solutions even if Apple isn't ready to yet. Think Wacom...

• 20 gig iPod - iPods will now come in three sizes: 5, 10, and 20 gig. Prices for the 5 and 10 gig iPods will drop by $50 to $349 and $449 respectively, while the 20 gig will sell for $549.

  why? Toshiba, the only supplier of the 1.8" hard drives Apple uses for the iPods, came out with a 20 gig drive last January. While it has identical power consumption as the 10 gig, it has an extra platter, making it 8mm high instead of the 5 and 10 gig's 5mm. Along with price point marketing issues, this is why the 20 gig didn't come out earlier. The 10 gig was basically a part replacement, with some possible software mods. The technical requirements for the 10 gig are virtually the same as the 5 gig. The 20 gig will either need a case that is 1-3mm thicker, or Apple will need to rearrange the iPod's interior. Initially, the iPod was created with stock parts from several vendors, with no custom ASICs, lowering startup costs and time to market. Now that the iPod is established, the engineering and testing effort for an ASIC may be justified, and such a chip would clear us space inside the iPod; more than enough for the 20 gig drive. Probability: It will happen at some point. call it 50/50 for an announcement or release next week.

• iPod for Windows - At one point envisioned as a separate hardware product, an iPod for the Windows market would now have identical hardware as a Mac iPod, and would probably be sold in the same box, with a multi-platform install CD and manual. No iTunes for Windows, but a slick utility solely to create playlists and import music onto the iPod, without any playing ability on the Windows side.

  why? As often as Apple has failed in the consumer electronics arena (AppleCD, Newton, Pippin, QuickTake, etc.), they have a huge hit with the iPod, despite the product's mac-only limitation. Without this limitation, the iPod is the best of breed for the portable MP3 market. Balanced between having a product which has brought more people to the Mac platform, and one with a respectable market penetration and profit center of its own, the logical compromise is to provide enough Windows functionality to open up the potential iPod audience to those with any computer, while still providing a premium experience to those with Macs. If done correctly, Apple could create a Windows experience which would inform them of the added capability available to Mac users, helping with Apple's current job 1: Switch. Probability: Virtually certain.

• 17" LCD iMac - In addition to the successful 15" iMac, a 17" 1280x1024 screen would bring in a lot of people currently being driven to large, noisy G4 towers with empty slots, just to get a decent-sized screen.

  why? Good question. Though the iMac enclosure is smaller and less expensive than the G4 tower, such a machine could easily cannibalize the G4 tower market. Prices for the 17" iMac would have to be high enough to retain the profit margin of the G4. Personally, such a machine would be my ideal, as it would be for a lot of people. I'd love to see this happen, but I'd worry about it sharing the same fate as the G4 Cube: A very appealing machine, but with a cannibalization tariff so high as to make a machine perceived as overpriced, however cool it may be. Probability: 60%. I'd have said 40%, if not for all the buzzing over at apple, yanking press credentials of the rumor sites.

• OS X 10.2 (Jaguar) - not a release, but a full walkthrough and a release date around August 10th.

  why? Beta testing went really well, and Apple would love to get some all-important Operating System buzz in the media in time to have an impact on the educational buying season, Apple's second largest after the holiday season. Probability: Certain.

• Switch Hoopla - Look for at least one, and possibly all, of the stars of the Switch commercials to be presented on stage, along with a couple new ones.

  why? Jobs loves to show off his media campaigns, and he hasn't had a chance to talk about this one in front of a big audience. It's a gimmie. Probability: 80%.

• Superdrives Everywhere - Look for Superdrives to be standard on all G4 tower machines and G4 Powerbooks. Also expect Superdrives on all but the entry-level LCD iMac and iBook, which will keep their CD-RW and CD-ROM respectively. The eMac and CRT iMac will remain the same.

  why? Superdrives are coming down in price, and it's a point of difference between Apple and the Windows world. It positions Apple to take better advantage of the shift from VCRs to DVD and, considering Apple's refusal to let users upgrade just their optical drive to an iDVD-compatible superdrive, it's a carefully planned solution to promote people to buy new machines, while handing their old machines down to people aching for iPods, etc. ;-) This idea is further supported by Sony's recent release of a DVD-RAM/CD-RW equipped notebook computer (Sony is Apple's primary optical drive supplier), and the fact that last week's Apple Employee Promo featured eight current Mac models, only one of which contained a Superdrive. It looks like they're clearing inventory. Probability: 70%

• Price drop on 22" and 23" Cinema Displays - Look for the 22" to drop to $1799 and the 23" to $2599.

  why? If a 17" iMac is released, the step up to the G4 tower can't be as steep. Customers looking for more than an iMac will feel that they need a bigger screen, and $2500 for a display is a huge obstacle. At $1799, it starts becoming a realistic, though extravagant, option. Current promos give a $500 rebate when you buy a G4 tower and a 22" display, so a price drop from a current $1999 to a perpetual $1799 isn't unrealistic. Of course the 23" would have to come down too, though the $2599 figure is a little more arbitrary, and would fluctuate based on Apple market research that I don't have access to. Probability: 80%.

• iPad - the super-cool pen and tablet-based Mac.

  why? Inkwell, along with the fact that several other hardware and OS manufacturers are heading down this path, makes this a clear stop on the Apple path. Probability: Zero at this Expo. January's another story though...

Well there you go! That's my story and I'm sticking to it. We'll see what happens on Wednesday the 17th!

So it's like this:

There are times in my life when I'm busy, and there are times when I'm not. To simplify it, it's like a sine wave, undulating on what (ideally, anyhow) would be a regular cycle.

Then there are times when I blog, and times when I don't blog. That too is on a cycle, but it's usually just out of phase. It makes sense, really: Things happen in my life, then I blog about things happening in my life, sometimes held off a bit because of the ongoing activity of... things going on in my life.

So consider blogging rate to being the inverse integral of living rate. Life is slowing down a bit, which means blogging is starting to pick up. Of course, before the new stories, I'm working through the backlog. So... in coming days look for (in order):

• Part III of Focus Group Voyeurism
• The Hiptop review
• The remaining pieces of the Pittsburgh journey, including
  How to find an apartment in Pittsburgh with just a few days
  • Photos of said apartment
• The Brown Island Trip
• Preview and planning for the Pittsburgh Pilgrimage with Ammy as my trusty co-pilot.

And of course...

• qwer
• randompixel
• underblog
• more aoliza
• many significant changes to fury
• metacookie
• and the 200N Blogger Purity Test Survey

TTFN!

Say, is anyone here themselves, or know of anyone else, driving from the Bay Area to Los Angeles on Thursday, Friday or Saturday? My sister's in town and she's looking for a ride down.

Alternatively, if you or someone you know) is driving down to the Santa Barbara Faire this weekend, that would be a huge help too, as she can probably catch a ride from there down to LA.

If you can help, just follow the dandy 'email' link at the top of the page and let me know.

Thanks bunches!

A couple months ago I was interviewed for an article being written about AI bots for New York Magazine. It turns out the article turned into a piece about the creator of ALICE, one of the most well known and arguably the most human-like AI bot yet created, but it's nevertheless an extremely interesting piece.

Free registration is required, but it's a good read. His story reminds me a lot of that of Howard Beck, the creator of the London Underground map, and how his devotion to the map (even decades after he had been let go by the London Transit Authority) took over his time, personality, and life.

I wonder whether these projects end up wrecking their creators, or if they are simply byproducts of an inevitable journey.

Now, with that, let me say that I'm hard at work finishing as many of my own mothballed projects before heading off to Pittsburgh. Don't worry though, I won't let them be the boss of me.

Just a few words on the absurdity of moving security checkpoints to the entrances of airports, instead of between the ticket counters and the gates:

Security checkpoints are there to make sure that people don't have access to bad things on planes. Moving checkpoints outside the terminal in reaction to events like the gunman at the LAX ticket counter is just stupid, because no matter where you put a checkpoint, there will always be a throng of people somewhere outside the secure perimiter, be it on the curb, or at a nearby McDonalds, where someone can point a gun and shoot. This isn't the sort of thing airport security checkpoints are supposed to prevent.

Also, performing a security sweep while you're still in control of the bags you're planning on checking is problematic. Now everything in your bag has to be as tweezer, knitting-needle, and toenail-clipper-free as you and your carryon bag have to be now, because who's to say you couldn't take things out of your to-be-checked suitcase, after the checkpoint and before checking bags?

Really, if we're going to push security to the curb, we may as well push it to the other curb, and make sure that nobody can leave their own house with anything more dangerous than a sharp wit.

But how would we staff that?

So I still have an hour and 40 minutes to my birthminute, but let me be the second to wish myself a happy birthday!

Care to be the third, or fourth? :-)

The Star Trek: Nemesis trailer posted to Apple's website today.

There's no real plotline revealed, but the effects look like Star Trek effects have finally caught up to the present.

Oh yeah, and I didn't see Wesley in it, but it loks like Lore has a role.